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Growing apprehensions are present over the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, making it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

Despite continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for maritime entry describing it as "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the armed forces, the officer, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a decision that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.